The key features and drivers of this phenomenon are now described. Unless specified, emissions refer to CO 2 emissions throughout.Ĭarbon emissions in China have evolved alongside socio-economic development. We end with recommendations for future research to facilitate future deep decarbonization. We subsequently assess China’s achievements towards low-carbon development, and discuss future prospects and challenges for further decarbonization, including reaching peak emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutralization before 2060. First, we outline the current standing of China’s CO 2 emissions alongside the factors driving the changes observed. In this Perspective, we assess the status of China’s carbon emissions and progress in its emission reduction plans, providing a basis for future decarbonization efforts. The implementation of effective policies is also critical, such as launching low-carbon pilot projects, promoting the ‘green market’ and establishing market mechanisms in carbon emission trading. These include increasing the share of non-fossil energy, developing negative emission technologies, and measures to remove carbon from the air or to increase the carbon sink. Building on these objectives, in September 2020, President Xi further proposed a long-term mitigation goal of carbon neutrality before 2060, and in December 2020, enhanced the INDC targets to a >65% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 from 2005 levels.Īchieving these targets, especially that of carbon neutrality before 2060, requires technological improvements and social-economic transitions. The Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) followed, as did China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in 2015, the latter of which aimed to achieve 60–65% carbon intensity reductions by 2030 (from 2005 levels) and to reach peak emissions around 2030. For example, in 2007 China’s National Leading Committee on Climate Change and The National Climate Change Program were established, introducing goals to reduce energy intensity and increase the share of non-fossil energy. Policies that specifically focus on emissions reductions have also been implemented, each supplanted by more stringent objectives. These include obligatory energy and carbon intensity targets stipulated in the Five-Year Plans (FYPs). Indeed, in recognition of the importance of China in determining the stabilization of the Earth’s climate 7, 8, many mitigation policies have been introduced. China’s share in global CO 2 emissions has increased rapidly since about 1980, with emissions per capita increasing substantially during the 2000s, but plateauing and fluctuating since 2010. Red shading represents uncertainties among databases. d | CO 2 emissions trends in China, from the GCP 1, IEA 10, BP 11, EDGAR 9, CDIAC 182 and CEADs 6, 14 databases, and years in which emission inventories were submitted to the UNFCCC via National Commmunications (NC) 174, 183, 184 and Biennial Update Reports (BUR) 147, 185. The EU27 incorporates: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden. ![]() c | Carbon intensity 181 (carbon emissions per economic output) for major emitting regions. b | CO 2 emissions per capita 181 in major emitting regions. ![]() To achieve these steps, top-down socio-economic development plans must coincide with bottom-up economic incentives and technology development.Ī | Annual CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion and cement production 1 in major emitting regions. Key steps towards China’s carbon neutrality include increasing its non-fossil energy share, deploying negative-emission technologies at large scale, promoting regional low-carbon development and establishing a nationwide ‘green market’. However, China still faces the challenges of reaching its peak total CO 2 emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. These reductions rely on the achievements of sectoral and sub-national targets outlined by China’s Five-Year Plans. ![]() China’s CO 2 emissions reductions have been substantial: by 2020, carbon intensity decreased by 48.4% compared to 2005 levels, achieving objectives outlined in the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions and Nationally Determined Contributions. In this Perspective, we summarize the key features of China’s CO 2 emissions, its reduction processes and successes in meeting climate targets. Policies and commitments are required to enable decarbonization. China therefore has a key role in global climate change mitigation. China is currently the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO 2).
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